Climate Change

Some experts say that Global Warming is happening more quickly than they had originally expected. How will it affect Winton?

Changes in the weather

The latest climate scenarios released by the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme show the following broad changes predicted for Dorset and the South West:

• Overall the region will become warmer - by the 2080s average temperatures may be as much as 5 deg C warmer.
• The temperature of coastal waters will increase, though not as much as the land.
• High summer temperatures will become more frequent, and very cold winters will become increasingly rare.
• Winters will become wetter (15% to 20% increase) whilst summers may become drier (15% to 20% decrease).
• Heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent.
  
• Relative sea level will continue to rise, to between 30cm and 60cm above existing levels.
• Extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently, up to 20 times more frequently than they do now.

Health implications

In 1999 the Department of Health carried out a study pointing to the following:

• the numbers of deaths associated with cold weather are likely to fall whilst hot weather associated deaths may rise.
• it is likely that malaria and other diseases may become established in localised parts of the UK and that the number of people returning to the UK with malaria will increase.
• food poisoning is likely to increase in warmer summers.
• unless preventative action is taken skin cancer due to increased exposure to UV light is likely to increase.
• flooding and gales cause both direct and indirect effects on health and severe floods could place a heavy strain on the NHS.
  
• the effects of air pollutants are likely to decrease except in the case of those caused by ozone.
• drought can lead to an increase in disease associated with water supplies but the impact is expected to be small.

Economic impact

Studies into the effects of climate change by the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme indicate the following economic implications:

• Tourism may benefit from climate change - new markets may develop as Northern Europe's climate warms but the increased likelihood of extreme weather events could pose problems.
• Although individuals seem to be aware of climate change and the influence of global warming, this awareness does not appear to feature in the agendas of businesses and other organisations in the region.
  
• Transport systems might have to adapt. Greater temperatures could lead to problems caused by expansion of railway lines and to the melting or cracking of road surfaces.
  
• New business opportunities: e.g. tourism and leisure, outdoor activities, food and drink, renewable energy, environmental monitoring equipment.
  
• A shift in consumer demand could force manufacturing, retail and the service sector to rethink the viability of certain products and services in the future.
  
• Outdoor activities may become more popular and we may require more cooling systems and less heating.
  
• Water supply companies are already aware that supply systems will have to be much more flexible to allow for greater extremes of heavy rainfall and prolonged drought.
  
• Electricity suppliers and generators may see significant changes in both the seasonal and even daily patterns of demand – more use of air conditioning increasing summer energy use.
  
• Possible increases in 'extreme weather events' poses a real threat for the insurance industry.
  

How has the local weather changed in recent years?

Check it out for yourself with the table below. It is drawn from Met Office figures produced by the weather station at Hurn.

And how about a hundred years ago? For rough comparison here are figures recorded at Southampton (there was no Hurn weather station at that time).

For more details, visit the Met Office web site or see full details from Hurn Weather Station.

To see what we are doing nationally, visit the official Committee for Climate Change website.

What can you do personally?

• Insulate your loft and cavity walls
• Remember to turn off lights and use low energy light bulbs
• Switch off TVs and computers when not in use
• Turn your room thermostat down by 1° centigrade and it could cut your heating bills by 10%
• Close your curtains at dusk to stop heat escaping
• When cooking, close the door and slightly open a window to reduce condensation
• Lower the hot water cylinder thermostat to 60° centigrade.
• Fill your kettle with just the amount of water you need. Don't fill it up if you only need a cup.
• Buy "green electricity" from your power company
• Leave the car at home and cycle, walk or use public transport

How much difference could it make?

• If everybody in the UK turned off appliances and avoided standby, we would save enough electricity to power 2,700,000 homes for a year!
• If we all turned off lights when we didn't need them we would save enough money to pay the wages of 10,000 new nurses!
• If we all turned the thermostat down by 1° we could save enough energy to heat 1,700,000 houses for a year!
• If every home replaced one ordinary light bulb with an energy saving one, we would save enough money to pay around 75,000 family fuel bills for a year!
• If everybody in the UK upgraded their appliances to energy saving recommended models, we would save enough energy to run all of the UK's street lighting for six years!

For more details of what you can do personally to combat global warming, take a look at the Environment Agency website.

Snowy Winton

There is no doubt that the weather is changing. But we still do sometimes get snow. If you've forgotten what a snowy Winton looks like, click here.